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Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kweChina kwepolypropylene (PP) kwakangosvika mazana mana nemakumi mana nemakumi mana nematanhatu ematoni muna 424,746, icho chisiri chikonzero chekutsamwa pakati pevatengesi vakuru vekuAsia neMiddle East.Asi sezvinoratidzwa nechati iri pazasi, muna 2021, China yakapinda pakati pevanotengesa kunze kwenyika, nekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakakwira kusvika matani miriyoni 1.4.

Kubva muna 2020, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina kwaingova padanho neaya eJapan neIndia.Asi muna 2021, China yakatengesa kunze kudarika kunyange United Arab Emirates, iyo ine mukana mune zvigadzirwa.

Hapana munhu anofanirwa kushamisika, sezvo nzira yacho yave yakajeka kubva muna 2014 nekuda kwekuchinja kukuru kwegwaro.Gore iroro yakatsunga kuwedzera kuzviriritira kwayo mumakemikari nemapolima.

Kunetsekana kuti shanduko yekudyara yakanangana nekutengesa mhiri kwemakungwa uye shanduko mune geopolitics inogona kutungamira kune isina chokwadi kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, Beijing inonetsekana kuti China inofanirwa kutiza musungo wemari yepakati nekusimudzira maindasitiri akakosha.

Kune zvimwe zvigadzirwa, zvinofungidzirwa kuti China inogona kubva pakuva mutengesi mukuru kune kunze kwenyika kuenda kune mutengesi kunze, zvichizosimudzira mihoro yekunze.Izvi zvakakurumidza kuitika nekunatswa terephthalic acid (PTA) uye polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins.

PP inoratidzika kunge iri pachena mukwikwidzi wekupedzisira kugutsikana kuzere, zvakanyanya kupfuura polyethylene (PE), nekuti iwe unogona kugadzira propylene feedstock munzira dzinoverengeka dzemakwikwi, nepo kugadzira ethylene iwe unofanirwa kushandisa mabhiriyoni emadhora kuvaka kuputika kwemhepo. units.

China Customs 'yakaitwa gore negore PP yekutumira data yaNdira-Chivabvu 2022 (yakakamurwa ne5 uye yakapetwa negumi nemaviri) inoratidza kuti kunze kwegore rose kweChina kutengesa kunze kwenyika kunogona kukwira kusvika 1.7m muna 2022. Pasina kuwedzera kwesimba kwakarongwa kuSingapore gore rino, China inogona kupedzisira yanetsa. iyo nyika seyechitatu mutengesi mukuru kunze kweAsia neMiddle East.

Zvichida kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwegore rose kweChina muna 2022 kunogona kunge kwakakwira kudarika miriyoni imwe chete nemazana manomwe ematani, sezvo kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakakwira kubva pa143,390 kusvika pa218,410 matani munaKurume naKubvumbi 2022. Zvisineyi, zvinotengeswa kunze zvakadzika zvishoma kusvika pa211,809 matani muna Chivabvu zvichienzaniswa naApril -21 , zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvakawedzera muna Kubvumbi ndokuzoderera kwerinenge rose regore.

Gore rino rinogona kunge rakasiyana, zvakadaro, sezvo kudiwa kwenzvimbo kwakaramba kusisina kusimba muna Chivabvu, sekuudzwa kwatakaitwa nechati yakagadziridzwa pazasi.Isu tinogona kuona kuenderera mberi kwemwedzi-pa-mwedzi kukura kwekutengesa kunze kwegore rose ra2022. Rega nditsanangure chikonzero nei.

Kubva muna Ndira 2022 kusvika Kurume 2022, zvakare pagore (yakakamurwa ne3 uye yakapetwa negumi nemaviri), kushandiswa kweChina kunotaridzika kukura ne4 muzana kwegore rose.Zvino muna Ndira-Kubvumbi, iyo data yakaratidza kukura kwakadzika, uye ikozvino inoratidza kuderera kwe1% muna Ndira-Chivabvu.

Senguva dzose, chati iri pamusoro inokupa mamiriro matatu ekudiwa kwegore rose muna 2022.

Scenario 1 ndiyo yakanakisa mhedzisiro ye2% kukura

Mamiriro 2 (yakavakirwa muna Ndira-Chivabvu data) haina kunaka 1%

Scenario 3 inobvisa 4%.

Sezvandakakurukura mumashoko angu musi waJune 22, chii chichatibatsira kunzwisisa zviri kuitika chaizvo mune zvehupfumi ndezvinoitika zvinotevera mukusiyana kwemutengo pakati pe polypropylene (PP) uye polyethylene (PE) pa naphtha muChina.

Kusvikira vhiki inopera 17 June gore rino, PP uye PE yakapararira yakaramba iri pedyo nemazinga avo akaderera kubvira patakatanga mutengo wedu wekuongorora munaNovember 2002. Kupararira pakati pemari yemakemikari uye mapolymers uye feedstocks yakagara iri imwe yezviyero zvakanakisisa. simba mune chero indasitiri.

China macroeconomic data yakasanganiswa zvakanyanya.Zvakawanda zvinoenderana nekuti China inogona kuramba ichidzoreredza matanho ekuvhara, maitiro ayo ekubvisa hutachiona hutsva.

Kana hupfumi hukawedzera kuipa, usafunge kuti PP inotanga icharamba iri pamazinga akaderera anoonekwa kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chivabvu.Ongororo yedu yekugadzirwa kwemuno inoratidza yakazara 2022 chiyero chekushanda che78% chete, zvichienzaniswa nefungidziro yedu ye82 muzana yegore rino.

Mafekitori eChinese akadzikisa mhindu mukuyedza kudzoreredza miganho isina kusimba kuNortheast Asian PP vagadziri zvichibva pane naphtha uye propane dehydrogenation, nekubudirira kushoma kusvika parizvino.Zvichida imwe ye4.7 mtPA yePP nyowani inouya online gore rino ichanonoka.

Asi yuan isina kusimba padhora inogona kukurudzira kutengesa kunze kwenyika nekuwedzera mitengo yekushanda uye kuvhura mafekitori matsva panguva yakatarwa.Zvakakoshawo kuziva kuti huwandu hutsva hweChina huri pa "state of the art" chiyero chepasi rose, zvichibvumira kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvine mutengo wemakwikwi.

Tarisa yuan ichienzaniswa nedhora, iro radonha kusvika parizvino muna 2022. Tarisa mutsauko pakati pemitengo yePP yekuChina neyemhiri kwemakungwa sezvo kusiyana kuchava mumwe mutyairi mukuru wekutengesa kunze kweChina kwegore rose.